Clinical predictors of severe forms of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in adults and children during the 2009 epidemic in Brazil.

The World Health Organization (WHO) raised the global alert level for the A(H1N1) influenza pandemic in June 2009. However, since the beginning of the epidemic, the fight against the epidemic lacked foundations for managing cases to reduce the disease lethality. It was urgent to carry out studies that would indicate a model for predicting severe forms of influenza. This study aimed to identify risk factors for severe forms during the 2009 influenza epidemic and develop a prediction model based on clinical epidemiological data. A case-control of cases notified to the health secretariats of the states of Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, and Rio Grande do Sul was conducted. Cases had fever, respiratory symptoms, positive confirmatory test for the presence of the virus associated with one of the three conditions: (i) presenting respiratory complications such as pneumonia, ventilatory failure, severe acute respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis, acute cardiovascular complications or death; or respiratory failure requiring invasive or non-invasive ventilatory support, (ii) having been hospitalized or (iii) having been admitted to an Intensive Care Unit. Controls were individuals diagnosed with the disease on the same date (or same week) as the cases. A total of 1653 individuals were included in the study, (858 cases/795 controls). These participants had a mean age of 26 years, a low level of education, and were mostly female. The most important predictors identified were systolic blood pressure in mmHg, respiratory rate in bpm, dehydration, obesity, pregnancy (in women), and vomiting (in children). Three clinical prediction models of severity were developed, for adults, adult women, and for children. The performance evaluation of these models indicated good predictive capacity. The area values under the ROC curve of these models were 0.89; 0.98 and 0.91 respectively for the model of adults, adult women, and children respectively.

Biological, social, and healthcare factors associated with death due to influenza A(H1N1) during the 2009 epidemic in Brazil

Background: In June 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) raised the global alert level for the A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza pandemic and at that time sustained transmission in Brazil was established. It was urgent to carry out studies that evaluated possible risk factors for death from Influenza A(H1N1) to improve case management strategies to reduce the lethality of the disease. This study aimed to identify risk factors for death from Influenza A(H1N1), including the effectiveness of the vaccine against influenza A(H1N1) concerning mortality. Methods: A case-control of incident cases of influenza A(H1N1) reported in the Epidemiological Information Systems of the states of São Paulo, Paraná, Pará, Amazonas, and Rio Grande do Sul was conducted. Results: 305 participants were included, 70 of them cases and 235 controls, distributed as follows: Amazonas ­ 9 cases/10 controls, Pará ­ 22 cases/77 controls, São Paulo ­ 19 cases/49 controls, Paraná ­ 10 cases/54 controls, Rio Grande do Sul ­ 10 cases/45 controls. These participants had a mean age of 30 years, with 33 years among cases and 25 years among controls. There was a predominance of females both among cases and controls. Biological (age), pre-existing diseases (congestive heart failure, respiratory disease, and diabetes mellitus), and care factors (ICU admission) associated with death from Influenza A(H1N1) were identified. Conclusion: The risk factors identified in this investigation allowed subsidizing the elaboration of clinical conducts, but also indicate important aspects for facing "new" influenza epidemics that are likely to occur in our country.

Sociodemographic and environmental factors associated with dengue, Zika, and chikungunya among adolescents from two Brazilian capitals.

Among the emerging and reemerging arboviral diseases, Zika, dengue and chikungunya deserve special attention due to their wide geographical distribution and clinical severity. The three arboviruses are transmitted by the same vector and can present similar clinical syndromes, bringing challenges to their identification and register. Demographic characteristics and individual and contextual social factors have been associated with the three arboviral diseases. However, little is known about such associations among adolescents, whose relationships with the social environment are different from those of adult populations, implying potentially different places, types, and degrees of exposure to the vector, particularly in the school context. This study aims to identify sociodemographic and environmental risk factors for the occurrence of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya in a cohort of adolescents from the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents-ERICA-in the cities of Rio de Janeiro/RJ and Fortaleza/CE, from January 2015 to March 2019. Cases were defined as adolescents with laboratory or clinical-epidemiological diagnosis of Zika, dengue, or chikungunya, notified and registered in the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN). The cases were identified by linkage between the databases of the ERICA cohort and of SINAN. Multilevel Cox regression was employed to estimate hazard ratios (HR) as measures of association and respective 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). In comparison with adolescents living in lower socioeconomic conditions, the risk of becoming ill due to any of the three studied arboviral diseases was lower among those living in better socioeconomic conditions (HR = 0.43; 95%CI: 0.19-0.99; p = 0.047) and in the adolescents who attended school in the afternoon period (HR = 0.17; 95%CI: 0.06-0.47; p<0.001). When compared to areas whose Building Infestation Index (BII) for Aedes aegypti was considered satisfactory, a BII in the school region classified as "alert" and "risk" was associated with a higher risk of arboviral diseases (HR = 1.62, 95%CI: 0.98-2.70; p = 0.062; HR = 3.72, 95%CI: 1.27-10.9; p = 0.017, respectively). These findings indicate that living in less favored socioeconomic conditions, attending school in the morning, and having a high BII for Ae. aegypti in school's region can contribute to an increased risk of infection by Zika, dengue, or chikungunya in adolescents. The identification of residential or school areas based on those variables can contribute to the implementation of control measures in population groups and priority locations.

Yellow fever vaccine safety in immunocompromised individuals: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever (YF) is an arbovirus with variable severity, including severe forms with high mortality. The vaccination is the most effective measure to protect against the disease. Non-serious and serious adverse events have been described in immunocompromised individuals, but previous studies have failed to demonstrate this association. This systematic review assessed the risk of adverse events after YF vaccination in immunocompromised individuals compared with its use in non-immunocompromised individuals. METHODS: A search was conducted in the MEDLINE, LILACS, EMBASE, SCOPUS, DARE, Toxiline, Web of Science and grey literature databases for publications until February 2021. Randomized and quasi-randomized clinical trials and observational studies that included immunocompromised participants (individuals with HIV infection, organ transplants, with cancer, who used immunosuppressive drugs for rheumatologic diseases and those on immunosuppressive therapy for other diseases) were selected. The methodological quality of observational or non-randomized studies was assessed by the ROBINS-I tool. Two meta-analyses were performed, proportion and risk factor analyses, to identify the summary measure of relative risk (RR) in the studies that had variables suitable for combination. RESULTS: Twenty-five studies were included, most with risk of bias classified as critical. Thirteen studies had enough data to carry out the proposed meta-analyses. Seven studies without a comparator group had their results aggregated in the proportion meta-analysis, identifying an 8.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.07-21.8] risk of immunocompromised individuals presenting adverse events after vaccination. Six cohort studies were combined, with an RR of 1.00 (95% CI 0.78-1.29). Subgroup analysis was performed according to the aetiology of immunosuppression and was also unable to identify an increased risk of adverse events following vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: It is not possible to affirm that immunocompromised individuals, regardless of aetiology, have a higher risk of adverse events after receiving the YF vaccine.

[Analysis of the seasonality of tuberculosis in Brazilian capitals and the Federal District from 2001 to 2019]. / Análise da sazonalidade da tuberculose nas capitais brasileiras e Distrito Federal, Brasil, no período de 2001 a 2019.

The literature has few studies on the seasonality of tuberculosis (TB) in the southern hemisphere, entailing the fill of this knowledge gap. This study aims to analyze whether TB incidence in Brazilian capitals and the Federal District is seasonal. This is an ecological study of a time series (2001-2019) of TB cases, conducted with 26 capitals and the Federal District. The Ministry of Health database, with 516,524 TB cases, was used. Capitals and the Federal District were divided into five groups based on social indicators, disease burden, and the Koppen climate classification. The seasonal variation of TB notifications and group amplitude were evaluated. We found TB seasonality in Brazil with a 1% significance in all capital groups (Stability assumption and Krusall-Wallis tests, p < 0.01). In the combined seasonality test, capital groups A, D, and E showed seasonality, whereas groups B and C, its probability. Our findings showed that health service supply and/or demand - rather than climate - may be the most relevant underlying factor in TB seasonality. It is challenging to raise the other seasonal factors underlying TB seasonality in tropical regions in the Southern Hemisphere.

Existe uma limitação de trabalhos na literatura acerca da sazonalidade da tuberculose (TB) no hemisfério sul, o que torna necessário o preenchimento dessa lacuna de conhecimento para a região. O estudo objetiva analisar se existe sazonalidade da incidência de TB nas capitais brasileiras do Brasil e no Distrito Federal, por meio de um estudo ecológico de série temporal (2001-2019) dos casos da doença. Utilizou-se a base de 516.524 casos de TB do Ministério da Saúde. As capitais e o Distrito Federal foram distribuídos em cinco grupos, com base em indicadores sociais, carga da doença e classificação climática de Koppen. Avaliou-se a variação sazonal das notificações de TB e a amplitude sazonal por grupo. Identificou-se a presença da sazonalidade da TB no Brasil ao nível de significância de 1% em todos os grupos de capitais (teste de estabilidade assumida e Krusall-Wallis, p < 0,01) e, no teste combinado de sazonalidade, os grupos A, D e E de capitais mostraram presença de sazonalidade; e, provavelmente presentes, os grupos B e C. Os achados mostraram que é um desafio levantar os fatores sazonais subjacentes à sazonalidade da TB nas regiões tropicais do Hemisfério Sul: o clima pode não ser o fator subjacente mais relevante encontrado na sazonalidade da TB, mas sim a oferta e/ou procura por serviços de saúde.

Son limitados los estudios que tratan de la estacionalidad de la tuberculosis (TB) en el hemisferio Sur, por lo que se hace necesario llenar esta laguna. Este estudio tiene como objetivo analizar si existe una estacionalidad en la incidencia de TB en las capitales brasileñas y en el Distrito Federal, Brasil. Estudio ecológico de series de tiempo (2001-2019) de casos de TB, realizado en 26 capitales brasileñas y el Distrito Federal. Se utilizó una base de datos con 516.524 casos de TB del Ministerio de Salud. Las capitales y el Distrito Federal se dividieron en cinco grupos, con base en indicadores sociales, carga de enfermedad y clasificación climática de Koppen. Se evaluaron la variación estacional de las notificaciones de TB y la amplitud estacional por grupo. La presencia de estacionalidad de la TB en Brasil fue identificada con un nivel de significación del 1% en todos los grupos de capitales (prueba de estabilidad supuesta y Kruskal-Wallis, p < 0,01), en la prueba de estacionalidad combinada, los grupos A, D y E de las capitales tuvieron la presencia de estacionalidad; y también es probable que haya estado presente en los grupos B y C. Los hallazgos demostraron que el clima puede no ser el factor subyacente más relevante encontrado en la estacionalidad de la TB, pero sí la oferta y/o demanda de servicios de salud, lo que muestra que es un desafío plantear los demás factores estacionales subyacentes a la estacionalidad de la TB en las regiones tropicales del Hemisferio Sur.

A Systematic Review and a Meta-Analysis of the Yellow Fever Vaccine in the Elderly Population.

We conducted a systematic review and a meta-analysis to assess the risk of serious adverse events in the elderly after yellow fever vaccination compared to the non-elderly population. We searched multiple databases and grey literature, and we selected research without language and publication date restrictions. Studies were analyzed in a descriptive way and meta-analyzed and expressed in terms of prevalence ratio and risk ratio with a 95% confidence interval, depending on the degree of heterogeneity found. A total of 18 studies were included and 11 were meta-analyzed. The results obtained through the meta-analysis showed a risk of serious adverse events after yellow fever vaccination three times higher for the elderly when compared to the non-elderly population and five times higher for persons > 70 years. In relation to adverse event types, viscerotropic disease associated with the yellow fever vaccine had a risk that was six times higher when compared to the population < 60 years. The evidence found supports that the vaccine indication in individuals > 60 years of age should be based on a careful analysis of individual benefit-risk assessments. The results found suggest a higher risk of events for individuals > 70 years, especially for viscerotropic and neurotropic disease associated with YFV contraindicating the use of the YFV in this age group.

Clinical Impact of the Line Probe Assay and Xpert® MTB/RIF Assay in the Presumptive Diagnosis of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Brazil: A Pragmatic Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Rapid molecular methods such as the line probe assay (LPA) and Xpert® MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) have been recommended by the World Health Organization for drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) diagnosis. We conducted an interventional trial in DR-TB reference centers in Brazil to evaluate the impact of the use of LPA and Xpert. METHODS: Patients with DR-TB were eligible if their drug susceptibility testing results were available to the treating physician at the time of consultation. The standard reference MGITTM 960 was compared with Xpert (arm 1) and LPA (arm 2). Effectiveness was considered as the start of the appropriate TB regimen that matched drug susceptibility testing (DST) and the proportions of culture conversion and favorable treatment outcomes after 6 months. RESULTS: A higher rate of empirical treatment was observed with MGIT alone than with the Xpert assay (97.0% vs. 45.0%) and LPA (98.2% vs. 67.5%). Patients started appropriate TB treatment more quickly than those in the MGIT group (median 15.0 vs. 40.5 days; p<0.01) in arm 1. Compared to the MGIT group, culture conversion after 6 months was higher for Xpert in arm 1 (90.9% vs. 79.3%, p=0.39) and LPA in arm 2 (80.0% vs. 83.0%, p=0.81). CONCLUSIONS: In the Xpert arm, there was a significant reduction in days to the start of appropriate anti-TB treatment and a trend towards greater culture conversion in the sixth month.

The triple epidemics of arboviruses in Feira de Santana, Brazilian Northeast: Epidemiological characteristics and diffusion patterns.

Arboviruses are diseases of worldwide importance in the field of communicable diseases. In Brazil, the reemergence of dengue and the emergence of chikungunya and Zika since 2014 have led to epidemic waves of great magnitude and rapid spread. However, their diffusion patterns vary and change over time. This study analyzes the spatial diffusion of the simultaneous circulation of three arboviruses transmitted by the same vector in a large urban space over two epidemic waves in consecutive years. An ecological study of spatial and temporal aggregates on the occurrence of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, from 2014 to 2019, in Feira de Santana, Bahia State, was carried out using data of cases reported to the national surveillance system. Four different methods were used to analyze the spatial diffusion: Kernel Estimation with sequential maps, cumulative nearest-neighbor ratios (NNI) over time, spatial correlograms and local autocorrelation changes (LISA) over time. From 2014-2019, there were 21,723 confirmed cases of arboviruses. The highest incidences were among women (496.9, 220.2, and 91.0 cases/100,000 women for dengue, chikungunya and Zika respectively). By age group, the highest incidences were from ages 10-19 years old (609.3 dengue cases/100,000), from 60 and more (306.7 chikungunya cases/100,000), and from 0-9 years old (124.1 Zika cases/100,000 inhabitants). The temporal distribution demonstrated two epidemic waves of simultaneous circulation in 2014 and 2015. Kernel maps indicate that arboviruses spread to neighboring areas near the first hotspots, suggesting an expansion diffusion pattern. The NNI, spatial correlograms and LISA changes results suggest expansion patterns for the three arboviruses in all periods. The spatial diffusion pattern of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya in the 2014-2015 epidemics in Feira de Santana was expansion. These findings are useful to guide prevention measures and reduce occurrence in other areas.

Análise da sazonalidade da tuberculose nas capitais brasileiras e Distrito Federal, Brasil, no período de 2001 a 2019 / Analysis of the seasonality of tuberculosis in Brazilian capitals and the Federal District from 2001 to 2019 / Análisis de la estacionalidad de la tuberculosis en las capitales brasileñas y el Distrito Federal, Brasil, de 2001 a 2019

Existe uma limitação de trabalhos na literatura acerca da sazonalidade da tuberculose (TB) no hemisfério sul, o que torna necessário o preenchimento dessa lacuna de conhecimento para a região. O estudo objetiva analisar se existe sazonalidade da incidência de TB nas capitais brasileiras do Brasil e no Distrito Federal, por meio de um estudo ecológico de série temporal (2001-2019) dos casos da doença. Utilizou-se a base de 516.524 casos de TB do Ministério da Saúde. As capitais e o Distrito Federal foram distribuídos em cinco grupos, com base em indicadores sociais, carga da doença e classificação climática de Koppen. Avaliou-se a variação sazonal das notificações de TB e a amplitude sazonal por grupo. Identificou-se a presença da sazonalidade da TB no Brasil ao nível de significância de 1% em todos os grupos de capitais (teste de estabilidade assumida e Krusall-Wallis, p < 0,01) e, no teste combinado de sazonalidade, os grupos A, D e E de capitais mostraram presença de sazonalidade; e, provavelmente presentes, os grupos B e C. Os achados mostraram que é um desafio levantar os fatores sazonais subjacentes à sazonalidade da TB nas regiões tropicais do Hemisfério Sul: o clima pode não ser o fator subjacente mais relevante encontrado na sazonalidade da TB, mas sim a oferta e/ou procura por serviços de saúde.

The literature has few studies on the seasonality of tuberculosis (TB) in the southern hemisphere, entailing the fill of this knowledge gap. This study aims to analyze whether TB incidence in Brazilian capitals and the Federal District is seasonal. This is an ecological study of a time series (2001-2019) of TB cases, conducted with 26 capitals and the Federal District. The Ministry of Health database, with 516,524 TB cases, was used. Capitals and the Federal District were divided into five groups based on social indicators, disease burden, and the Koppen climate classification. The seasonal variation of TB notifications and group amplitude were evaluated. We found TB seasonality in Brazil with a 1% significance in all capital groups (Stability assumption and Krusall-Wallis tests, p < 0.01). In the combined seasonality test, capital groups A, D, and E showed seasonality, whereas groups B and C, its probability. Our findings showed that health service supply and/or demand - rather than climate - may be the most relevant underlying factor in TB seasonality. It is challenging to raise the other seasonal factors underlying TB seasonality in tropical regions in the Southern Hemisphere.

Son limitados los estudios que tratan de la estacionalidad de la tuberculosis (TB) en el hemisferio Sur, por lo que se hace necesario llenar esta laguna. Este estudio tiene como objetivo analizar si existe una estacionalidad en la incidencia de TB en las capitales brasileñas y en el Distrito Federal, Brasil. Estudio ecológico de series de tiempo (2001-2019) de casos de TB, realizado en 26 capitales brasileñas y el Distrito Federal. Se utilizó una base de datos con 516.524 casos de TB del Ministerio de Salud. Las capitales y el Distrito Federal se dividieron en cinco grupos, con base en indicadores sociales, carga de enfermedad y clasificación climática de Koppen. Se evaluaron la variación estacional de las notificaciones de TB y la amplitud estacional por grupo. La presencia de estacionalidad de la TB en Brasil fue identificada con un nivel de significación del 1% en todos los grupos de capitales (prueba de estabilidad supuesta y Kruskal-Wallis, p < 0,01), en la prueba de estacionalidad combinada, los grupos A, D y E de las capitales tuvieron la presencia de estacionalidad; y también es probable que haya estado presente en los grupos B y C. Los hallazgos demostraron que el clima puede no ser el factor subyacente más relevante encontrado en la estacionalidad de la TB, pero sí la oferta y/o demanda de servicios de salud, lo que muestra que es un desafío plantear los demás factores estacionales subyacentes a la estacionalidad de la TB en las regiones tropicales del Hemisferio Sur.

Clinical Impact of the Line Probe Assay and Xpert® MTB/RIF Assay in the Presumptive Diagnosis of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Brazil: A Pragmatic Clinical Trial

ABSTRACT Background: Rapid molecular methods such as the line probe assay (LPA) and Xpert® MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) have been recommended by the World Health Organization for drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) diagnosis. We conducted an interventional trial in DR-TB reference centers in Brazil to evaluate the impact of the use of LPA and Xpert. Methods: Patients with DR-TB were eligible if their drug susceptibility testing results were available to the treating physician at the time of consultation. The standard reference MGITTM 960 was compared with Xpert (arm 1) and LPA (arm 2). Effectiveness was considered as the start of the appropriate TB regimen that matched drug susceptibility testing (DST) and the proportions of culture conversion and favorable treatment outcomes after 6 months. Results: A higher rate of empirical treatment was observed with MGIT alone than with the Xpert assay (97.0% vs. 45.0%) and LPA (98.2% vs. 67.5%). Patients started appropriate TB treatment more quickly than those in the MGIT group (median 15.0 vs. 40.5 days; p<0.01) in arm 1. Compared to the MGIT group, culture conversion after 6 months was higher for Xpert in arm 1 (90.9% vs. 79.3%, p=0.39) and LPA in arm 2 (80.0% vs. 83.0%, p=0.81). Conclusions: In the Xpert arm, there was a significant reduction in days to the start of appropriate anti-TB treatment and a trend towards greater culture conversion in the sixth month.

Environmental and social effects on the incidence of tuberculosis in three Brazilian municipalities and in Federal District.

INTRODUCTION: The territorial characteristics, heterogeneities of landscapes, and the regional profiles of Brazil show great disparities in the spatial distribution of tuberculosis burden. Objective of this study is to analyze the effects of environmental and social factors on tuberculosis incidence in three Brazilian municipalities and in the Federal District of Brazil. METHODOLOGY: We performed an ecological study carried out with 131,576 new cases of tuberculosis registered in the Brazilian national disease notification system. For our research we used climatic data, topographic data and socioeconomic data. RESULTS: Wind speed and vapor pressure increased the risk of tuberculosis infection between 4.6 and 5.8 times in the 3 municipalities, in comparison with the Federal District. In Recife socioeconomic aspects showed a greater association with tuberculosis. Lack of garbage collection, poor basic sanitation, and access to drinking water, respectively, increased 49, 33, and 28 times the risk of infection. In the multiple regression analysis, Rio de Janeiro showed several environmental characteristics - such as precipitation (p = 0.002), radiation (p = 0.020) and water vapor (p = 0.055) - and social characteristics associated with tuberculosis - such as the lack of sewage treatment, which revealed a 13.5-fold higher risk of infection (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Incidence in the areas studied was influenced by environmental and social conditions at different levels depending on the territory where the problem was identified. The results make it possible to guide an urban and social policy to reach the targets set out in the WHO End tuberculosis Strategy in large Brazilian urban agglomerations.

Cumulative Environmental Vulnerability Assessment in the Area of Influence of the Pecém Port Industrial Complex (Ceará, Brazil): A Spatial Analysis.

The municipalities of Caucaia and São Gonçalo do Amarante are located in the metropolitan region of Fortaleza (CE) and are home to the Pecém Port Industrial Complex (PPIC). We know that economic development is not necessarily related to improvements in the quality of life of the population. Furthermore, the bonuses and burdens of this particular installation can occur unevenly. This study aimed to assess the cumulative environmental vulnerability of these municipalities. We used the cumulative environmental vulnerability assessment methodology to assess the population's degree of vulnerability, considering census sectors as a spatial unit. This approach combines three indices: environmental risk index, social vulnerability index, and health index. Finally, we calculated the arithmetic mean of each indicator in each census sector. We built choropleth maps to assess the spatial distribution of environmental vulnerability. We found that many maps demonstrated high cumulative environmental vulnerability census sectors around the PPIC, while the Caucaia, located downtown, exhibited a substantial majority of the low cumulative environmental vulnerability census sectors. The district of Guararu, in Caucaia, was notable for having proportionally more census sectors with high health index values. Environmental vulnerability was heterogeneously distributed, and the most impoverished areas are also the most vulnerable.

Who was affected by the shortage of penicillin for syphilis in Rio de Janeiro, 2013-2017?

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the shortage of benzathine penicillin G (BPG), characterizing its temporal evolution and spatial distribution in the city of Rio de Janeiro from 2013 to 2017. METHODS: This ecological study used gestational and congenital syphilis notifications, BPG distribution records, and sociodemographic data from the population of Rio de Janeiro. To quantify the shortage, a BPG supply indicator was estimated per quarter for each neighborhood between 2013 and 2017. Thematic maps were created to identify areas and periods with greater BPG shortage, described according to sociodemographic factors, health services network, and epidemiological features in the incidence of syphilis. RESULTS: BPG shortage in Rio de Janeiro from 2013 to 2017 was not homogeneous in space nor in time. The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of BPG scarcity shows that the shortage affected the inhabitants of the municipality in different ways. Shortage was lower in 2013 and 2016 and more severe in 2014, 2015, and 2017, particularly in neighborhoods within the programmatic areas PA3 and PA5, poorer and with higher prevalence rates of gestational and congenital syphilis. CONCLUSIONS: Analyzing BPG shortage and its temporal evolution and spatial distribution in Rio de Janeiro allowed us to realize that the inhabitants are affected in different ways. Understanding this process contributes to the planning of actions to face shortage crises, minimizing possible impacts on the management of syphilis and reducing inequality in access to treatment.

Trends in the use of health services and their relationship with multimorbidity in Brazil, 1998-2013.

BACKGROUND: Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of multimorbidity. Access to effective and equitable health services that meet NCDs' needs is still limited in many countries. This constitutes the main barrier to coping with NCDs, especially in minimising the suffering of those who are already sick. The present study aimed to identify the relationship between multimorbidity and the use of different health services in Brazil from 1998 to 2013. METHODS: This is a panel study using data from the health supplement of the National Household Sample Survey of 1998, 2003 and 2008 and data from the National Health Survey carried out in 2013. Three health service utilization outcomes were considered: 1. search for health services in the last 15 days (excluding dental services), 2. medical consultation in the previous 12 months and 3. hospitalisations over the last 12 months. Multimorbidity was assessed by counting the number of morbidities from a list of 10 morbidities. Poisson regression models stratified by sex were used to estimate the crude and adjusted prevalence ratios and their respective 95% confidence intervals for each outcome of health service use and multimorbidity, per year. RESULTS: There was an increase in the prevalence of demand for health services and medical consultations in the last 12 months between 1998 and 2013, regardless of the multimorbidity classification. The prevalence of hospitalisations has decreased over the study period and increased twofold in individuals with multimorbidity. Having multimorbidity increased the use of health services for the three outcomes under the study, being more expressive among men. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that individuals with multimorbidity have higher levels of use of health services. Better understand the multimorbidity epidemiology and the associated impacts on the use and costs of health services can increase the quality of care provided to these patients and reduce rising health care costs.

Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020.

BACKGROUND: The state of Ceará (Northeast Brazil) has shown a high incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and most of the cases that were diagnosed during the epidemic originated from the capital Fortaleza. Monitoring the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic is of strategic importance and requires the use of sensitive tools for epidemiological surveillance, including consistent analyses that allow the recognition of areas with a greater propensity for increased severity throughout the cycle of the epidemic. This study aims to classify neighborhoods in the city of Fortaleza according to their propensity for a severe epidemic of COVID-19 in 2020. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study within the geographical area of the 119 neighborhoods located in the city of Fortaleza. To define the main transmission networks (infection chains), we assumed that the spatial diffusion of the COVID-19 epidemic was influenced by population mobility. To measure the propensity for a severe epidemic, we calculated the infectivity burden (ItyB), infection burden (IonB), and population epidemic vulnerability index (PEVI). The propensity score for a severe epidemic in the neighborhoods of the city of Fortaleza was estimated by combining the IonB and PEVI. RESULTS: The neighborhoods with the highest propensity for a severe COVID-19 epidemic were Aldeota, Cais do Porto, Centro, Edson Queiroz, Vicente Pinzon, Jose de Alencar, Presidente Kennedy, Papicu, Vila Velha, Antonio Bezerra, and Cambeba. Importantly, we found that the propensity for a COVID-19 epidemic was high in areas with differing socioeconomic profiles. These areas include a very poor neighborhood situated on the western border of the city (Vila Velha), neighborhoods characterized by a large number of subnormal agglomerates in the Cais do Porto region (Vicente Pinzon), and those located in the oldest central area of the city, where despite the wealth, low-income groups have remained (Aldeota and the adjacent Edson Queiroz). CONCLUSION: Although measures against COVID-19 should be applied to the entire municipality of Fortaleza, the classification of neighborhoods generated through this study can help improve the specificity and efficiency of these measures.

Breastfeeding patterns in cohort infants at a high-risk fetal, neonatal and child referral center in Brazil: a correspondence analysis.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the prevalence and patterns of breastfeeding at discharge and in the first six months of life in a high-risk fetal, neonatal and child referral center. METHODS: Prospective, longitudinal study that included the following three steps: hospital admission, first visit after hospital discharge and monthly telephone interview until the sixth month of life. The total number of losses was 75 mothers (7.5%). Exposure variables were sorted into four groups: factors related to the newborn, the mother, the health service and breastfeeding. The dependent variable is breastfeeding as per categories established by the WHO. All 1200 children born or transferred to the high-risk fetal, neonatal and child referral center, within a seven-day postpartum period, from March 2017 to April 2018, were considered eligible for the study, and only 1003 were included. The follow-up period ended in October 2018. For this paper, we performed an exploratory analysis at hospital discharge in three stages, as follows: (i) frequencies of baseline characteristics, stratified by risk for newborn; (ii) a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA); and (iii) clusters for variables related to hospital practice and exclusive breastfeeding (EBF). RESULTS: The prevalence of EBF at hospital discharge was 65.2% (62.1-68.2) and 20.6% (16.5-25.0) in the six months of life. Out of all at-risk newborns, 45.7% were in EBF at discharge. The total inertia corresponding to the two dimensions in the MCA explained for 75.4% of the total data variability, with the identification of four groups, confirmed by the cluster analysis. DISCUSSION: Our results suggest that robust breastfeeding hospital policies and practices influence the establishment and maintenance of breastfeeding in both healthy and at-risk infants. It is advisable to plan and implement additional strategies to ensure that vulnerable and healthy newborns receive optimal feeding. It is necessary to devote extra effort particularly to at-risk infants who are more vulnerable to negative outcomes. CONCLUSION: At-risk newborns did not exclusively breastfeed to the same extent as healthy newborns at hospital discharge. A different approach is required for at-risk neonates, who are more physically challenged and more vulnerable to problems associated with initiation and maintenance of breastfeeding.

Active and latent tuberculosis in refugees and asylum seekers: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In 2018, there were 70.8 million refugees, asylum seekers and persons displaced by wars and conflicts worldwide. Many of these individuals face a high risk for tuberculosis in their country of origin, which may be accentuated by adverse conditions endured during their journey. We summarised the prevalence of active and latent tuberculosis infection in refugees and asylum seekers through a systematic literature review and meta-analyses by country of origin and host continent. METHODS: Articles published in Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science and LILACS from January 2000 to August 2017 were searched for, without language restriction. Two independent authors performed the study selection, data extraction and quality assessment. Random effect models were used to estimate average measures of active and latent tuberculosis prevalence. Sub-group meta-analyses were performed according to country of origin and host continent. RESULTS: Sixty-seven out of 767 identified articles were included, of which 16 entered the meta-analyses. Average prevalence of active and latent tuberculosis was 1331 per 100 thousand inhabitants [95% confidence interval (CI) = 542-2384] and 37% (95% CI = 23-52%), respectively, both with high level of heterogeneity (variation in estimative attributable to heterogeneity [I2] = 98.2 and 99.8%). Prevalence varied more according to countries of origin than host continent. Ninety-one per cent of studies reported routine screening of recently arrived immigrants in the host country; two-thirds confirmed tuberculosis bacteriologically. Many studies failed to provide relevant information. CONCLUSION: Tuberculosis is a major health problem among refugees and asylum seekers and should be given special attention in any host continent. To protect this vulnerable population, ensuring access to healthcare for early detection for prevention and treatment of the disease is essential.

Spatial diffusion of Zika fever epidemics in the Municipality of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil, in 2015-2016: does Zika fever have the same spread pattern as Dengue and Chikungunya fever epidemics?

INTRODUCTION: The recent emergence and rapid spread of Zika and Chikungunya fevers in Brazil, occurring simultaneously to a Dengue fever epidemic, together represent major challenges to public health authorities. This study aimed to identify and compare the 2015-2016 spatial diffusion pattern of Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue epidemics in Salvador-Bahia. METHODS: We used two study designs comprising a cross-sectional-to-point pattern and an ecological analysis of lattice data. Residential addresses involving notified cases were geocoded. We used four spatial diffusion analysis techniques: (i) visual inspection of the sequential kernel and choropleth map, (ii) spatial correlogram analysis, (iii) spatial local autocorrelation (LISA) changes analysis and, (iv) nearest neighbor index (NNI) modeling. RESULTS: Kernel and choropleth maps indicated that arboviruses spread to neighboring areas near the first reported cases and occupied these new areas, suggesting a diffusion expansion pattern. A greater case density occurred in central and western areas. In 2015 and 2016, the NNI best-fit model had an S-curve compatible with an expansion pattern for Zika (R2 = 0.94; 0.95), Chikungunya (R2 = 0.99; 0.98) and Dengue (R2 = 0.93; 0.99) epidemics, respectively. Spatial correlograms indicated a decline in spatial lag autocorrelations for the three diseases (expansion pattern). Significant LISA changes suggested different diffusion patterns, although a small number of changes were detected. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate diffusion expansion, a unique spatial diffusion pattern of Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue epidemics in Salvador-Bahia, namely. Knowing how and where arboviruses spread in Salvador-Bahia can help improve subsequent specific epidemic control interventions.

Who was affected by the shortage of penicillin for syphilis in Rio de Janeiro, 2013-2017? / A quem afetou o desabastecimento de penicilina para sífilis no Rio de Janeiro, 2013-2017?

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the shortage of benzathine penicillin G (BPG), characterizing its temporal evolution and spatial distribution in the city of Rio de Janeiro from 2013 to 2017. METHODS This ecological study used gestational and congenital syphilis notifications, BPG distribution records, and sociodemographic data from the population of Rio de Janeiro. To quantify the shortage, a BPG supply indicator was estimated per quarter for each neighborhood between 2013 and 2017. Thematic maps were created to identify areas and periods with greater BPG shortage, described according to sociodemographic factors, health services network, and epidemiological features in the incidence of syphilis. RESULTS BPG shortage in Rio de Janeiro from 2013 to 2017 was not homogeneous in space nor in time. The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of BPG scarcity shows that the shortage affected the inhabitants of the municipality in different ways. Shortage was lower in 2013 and 2016 and more severe in 2014, 2015, and 2017, particularly in neighborhoods within the programmatic areas PA3 and PA5, poorer and with higher prevalence rates of gestational and congenital syphilis. CONCLUSIONS Analyzing BPG shortage and its temporal evolution and spatial distribution in Rio de Janeiro allowed us to realize that the inhabitants are affected in different ways. Understanding this process contributes to the planning of actions to face shortage crises, minimizing possible impacts on the management of syphilis and reducing inequality in access to treatment.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Analisar o desabastecimento da penicilina benzatina (PB), caracterizando sua evolução temporal e distribuição espacial no município do Rio de Janeiro de 2013 a 2017. MÉTODOS Trata-se de estudo ecológico misto realizado com notificações de sífilis gestacional e congênita, registros de distribuição de PB e de dados sociodemográficos da população dos bairros do município do Rio de Janeiro. Para mensurar o desabastecimento foi calculado por trimestre um indicador de abastecimento de PB para cada bairro, entre 2013 e 2017. Mapas temáticos foram produzidos para identificar áreas e períodos com maior desabastecimento de PB, o qual foi descrito segundo condições sociodemográficas, rede de serviços de saúde e aspectos epidemiológicos da incidência de sífilis por bairro. RESULTADOS O desabastecimento de PB no município do Rio de Janeiro, no período de 2013 a 2017, não foi homogêneo no espaço ou no tempo. A evolução temporal e a distribuição espacial da escassez de PB revelam que o desabastecimento afetou de formas distintas os habitantes do município, sendo menor em 2013 e 2016 e mais intenso em 2014, 2015 e 2017, principalmente nos bairros das áreas programáticas AP3 e AP5, mais pobres e com maiores taxas de sífilis gestacional e congênita. CONCLUSÕES Analisar o desabastecimento de PB e sua evolução temporal e distribuição espacial no município do Rio de Janeiro permitiu reconhecer que os habitantes do município são afetados de diferentes modos. Compreender esse processo ajuda a planejar ações para enfrentar crises de desabastecimento, minimizando possíveis impactos no controle da sífilis, além de reduzir a desigualdade no acesso ao tratamento.

Spatial diffusion of Zika fever epidemics in the Municipality of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil, in 2015-2016: does Zika fever have the same spread pattern as Dengue and Chikungunya fever epidemics?

Abstract INTRODUCTION The recent emergence and rapid spread of Zika and Chikungunya fevers in Brazil, occurring simultaneously to a Dengue fever epidemic, together represent major challenges to public health authorities. This study aimed to identify and compare the 2015-2016 spatial diffusion pattern of Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue epidemics in Salvador-Bahia. METHODS We used two study designs comprising a cross-sectional-to-point pattern and an ecological analysis of lattice data. Residential addresses involving notified cases were geocoded. We used four spatial diffusion analysis techniques: (i) visual inspection of the sequential kernel and choropleth map, (ii) spatial correlogram analysis, (iii) spatial local autocorrelation (LISA) changes analysis and, (iv) nearest neighbor index (NNI) modeling. RESULTS Kernel and choropleth maps indicated that arboviruses spread to neighboring areas near the first reported cases and occupied these new areas, suggesting a diffusion expansion pattern. A greater case density occurred in central and western areas. In 2015 and 2016, the NNI best-fit model had an S-curve compatible with an expansion pattern for Zika (R2 = 0.94; 0.95), Chikungunya (R2 = 0.99; 0.98) and Dengue (R2 = 0.93; 0.99) epidemics, respectively. Spatial correlograms indicated a decline in spatial lag autocorrelations for the three diseases (expansion pattern). Significant LISA changes suggested different diffusion patterns, although a small number of changes were detected. CONCLUSIONS These findings indicate diffusion expansion, a unique spatial diffusion pattern of Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue epidemics in Salvador-Bahia, namely. Knowing how and where arboviruses spread in Salvador-Bahia can help improve subsequent specific epidemic control interventions.